On being right too soon, which means being wrong

A few days ago I entered a trade in SCO, the inverse 2x US Oil ETF. I expected the price of oil to drop, because of the shape of the daily chart. It was very near its down trendline and near the top edge of a wedge.

My hypothesis was correct: the price of oil did drop in the following few days. But my timing of entry was not right.

I used the hourly chart, and disregarded a few facts, which turned out to be fair warnings, and by ignoring them, I took on unnecessary risks.

1. MACD had already given a buy signal a day before.  In the hourly chart, that's a stale signal and no longer good.

2. MACD-H was already weakening.

3. RSI was already around 70.

I placed my stop at 55.64, way too low, only because the size of the trade was small. I think that was a mistake.  After a gap like that one, any move below the top edge of the gap should have taken as a sign of a wrong entry and time to exit the trade.

As it turned out, gap 1 was not the breakaway gap I expected.  Gap 2 seems to be it.