Long INTC @ 21.17, sold @ 20.84

3/8/2011
Long INTC at 21.17
Stop at 20.84
Risk 0.33/share
Size 33/0.33 = 100 shares
Channel(5) 22.55-20.40=2.15 (/3=0.72)
Target 21.17 + 0.72 = 21.89

INTC was the only one among my favorite seven (AA AXP CAT CSCO HPQ INTC MRK) to have a down day today. It is in an uptrend. It has had three days down in a row.

Sold on 3/10/11 at 20.84. 

I got stopped out.

Yesterday INTC broke the 3-day streak with a minor advance, but today the market got hit by the fear of God and it was a red day across the board. Commodities, world equities, domestic. The S&P 500 was down 1.89% and the Dow was down 1.87%.  Intel got caught in this storm and it went down 1.93% overall. The low was 20.72 ( 2.2% down from my entry price).

What am I doing wrong? I'm starting to think I should go short every time I think of going long.  Seriously.

Clearly my stops are too tight.

Maybe I should go back to RSI2, RSI4 and %B on ETFs.

Maybe I should backtest more strategies.

Maybe the market is crazy these days, and I need to stay out for a little while, or look for something that's in a clear trend, and just ride that trend.

Maybe I need to stop trying to catch falling knives.  I always buy shares that are down fro the day, expecting a rebound the next day, but it doesn't seem to work.

I mean, c'mon. I need to find something that works and then follow it. I still feel like I am groping in the dark.

Long CSCO @ 18.12, sold @ 17.88

3/9/11
Long CSCO @ 18.12
Stop 17.88
Risk .24/share
Size 100 shares
Channel 22.52 - 20.38 = 2.14 (/3 = .71)
Target 18.59

This is unusual because this stock is in a clear downtrend.  The recent major gaps down have been followed by basing for 3-5 weeks and then a slow increase. Today's little hammer seemed promising.  Also, this stock has not been this cheap in a long time. My estimate is that as soon as the Libyan oil crisis works itself out, CSCO will raise along with the market.

Update: sold on 3/11/11 at 17.88.

I got stopped out again. 

$SPX look eerily like about a year ago

I was looking at last year's spring rally, which we all know ended badly in early May, and I realized how much the $SPX chart of last year looks like this year's.

MACD, MACD-H and Slow Stochastics have essentially the same shape. The EMA lines look similar, with the correction in Feb 2010 more pronounced than in Nov 2010, in fact in Feb 2010 the 22-day EMA crossed below the 50-day EMA.

A difference that I hope is important is in the NYSE High Low Index (issues making new high minus issues making new lows). In March 2010, that index started swinging across the 400 line, and it did so several times in April before the drop in early May.  So far, this year, it has not reached the 400 level.  This may or may not work as a predictor of an imminent drop, but I think it's worth keeping an eye on.

Bought SLX at 73.72, sold at 72.57

Bought on 2/28/11
Channel(5) 77.80-70.39=7.41, 1/3=2.47
Stop 72.57, loss 1.15
Size 20 shares
Risk $23
Target 76.19

Notes: I was a little late to the party.  I placed my first buy order at 3:30 PM for 73.52 when the ask was 73.56 and ended up raising it three times until finally buying at 3.58 PM.

Sold on 3/1/11 at 72.57, when my stop got hit.  I had placed my stop at the low of two days ago. Today the market took a beating and SLX did too, along with the rest.  This trade did not work out at all.

One important note, again, KNOW WHAT YOU BUY.  This ETF is an index of steel-related stocks, not exactly a commodity, so it tends to move a lot with the equity market. Other commodities did relatively well today. The other one I had intention to buy was JJG, and it went up 0.4% today.

Bought JJC at 57.48, sold at 59.48

Bought on 2/23/11
JJC - Channel 56.29 - 62.21 = 5.92 (/3=1.97)
Enter at 57.48
Stop at 55.89 - Loss 1.59 per share (20 shares)
Target 60 - Gain 2.52 per share

Sold on 3/1/2011 at 59.48.  My stop got hit during the AM. I had set it to the low of two days ago. This trade went well, overall, although at the moment I have the feeling that JJC has some more upside potential. Eh well. What's done is done.