Market breadth analysis, 21 Aug 2015

1. A/D line is at -914, moving down. Lower than the recent -700 low in late July. $NYSE on the decline since May. -1
2. NYSI is deeply negative at -392. It went negative in early June. -1
3. NYHL (EMA10) is negative at -251, after crossing below 0 in early June and again July. Now lower than recent low of -225 in late July. -1
4. NYA200R (EMA20) has crossed below 50 in early July and is at 39, still descending. -1
5. NYA200R (ROC14) is at -37, outside the [-20, 20] range, indicative of high volatility. +0
6. CPC (50MA) is at 1.020, after crossing above 1 (meaning bearish) on July 31. -1

Score: -5
$SPX on 21 August was 1970 (was 2077 two weeks ago).

Market breadth analysis for May and June

It seems that market breadth analysis saw a turning point in June, when the score went mostly negative.

This is the market breadth analysis as of the end of May 2015.

1. A/D line is at -282, moving down after a peak at 300 in mid May, which represented a divergence against the $NYSE. -1
2. NYSI is at 174 and descending. +1
3. NYHL (EMA10) is positive at 22, after a recent high of ~60 in mid May. There is a clear divergence against $NYA between the peaks of March, April and May. +0
4. NYA200R (EMA20) is at 60 (+1 when n>50) although making lower highs. +1
5. NYA200R (ROC14) is at -7, inside the [-20, 20] range, indicative of trend. +0
6. CPC (50MA) is at 0.98, indicating a bull market, although it is getting pretty close to crossing up over 1. +1

Score: +2

$SPX at the end of May was 2107.



And the end of June.


1. A/D line is at -432, moving up after a peak at 200 in late June and a lower bottom at the end of June. Trending down. -1
2. NYSI is at -299 and descending. -1
3. NYHL (EMA10) is negative at -87, after a recent high of ~35 in late June. It and $NYA are now heading lower. -1
4. NYA200R (EMA20) is at 52 (+1 when n>50) heading lower. A weak +1
5. NYA200R (ROC14) is at -15, inside the [-20, 20] range, indicative of trend. +0
6. CPC (50MA) is at 0.99, still barely indicating a bull market, although it is getting pretty close to crossing up over 1. A weak +1

Score: -1

$SPX at the end of June was 2063.

Market Breadth 7 August 2015

1. A/D line is at -221, moving down. Recent peaks lower than previous peaks. $NYSE on the decline since May. -1
2. NYSI is deeply negative at -338. It went negative in early June. -1
3. NYHL (EMA10) is negative at -155, after crossing below 0 in early June and again July. Recent sharp dip about -225 could be a turning point but should probably wait for higher lows to call that. -1
4. NYA200R (EMA20) has crossed below 50 in early July (-1) and is at 42, still descending.
5. NYA200R (ROC14) is at -13, inside the [-20, 20] range, indicative of neutral market, and that no major tops or bottom have happened recently. +0
6. CPC (50MA) is at 1.006, and has just turned positive (meaning bearish, so -1) a week ago, on July 31.

Score: -5
$SPX on 7 August was 2077.

Overall the situation looks similar to the end of a bull market, or at the very least close to a serious correction.