Monday, September 19, 2011

Long SDS at 22.41, sold at 22.87

The market is in a down trend, but it had been going up for six straight days.  My hypothesis was that the six straight days up was a bounce and the downtrend was now going to resume.

I used SDS to minimize the amount of capital - rather that putting double what I had in mind in SH. The horizon of this trade is less than 20 days.

Trade entry time was also based on MACD on the hourly chart.


UPDATED 9/21/11: I moved my stop up because I was afraid of a sudden rally in the S&P 500 caused by positive reactions to the FOMC meeting this afternoon.  Instead, there was seesaw action, and my stop was hit just before a drop of the S&P 500 (which resulted in a nice increase in SDS, but I didn't take part in it).

Note that my fear of a sudden rally was caused mainly by reading a piece by David Rosenberg about 12 reasons why you shouldn't be short the equity market before the FOMC meeting.

He was wrong, I was right, but I listened to the voice of fear and ended up losing out on this nice raise from 23 to over 24.



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