Vanguard accounts target asset allocation

The time has come to finally make a plan for an investment portfolio that has fallen into wishful thinking territory.  I have two accounts with Vanguard, and this is what I plan to do.

First of all, two assumptions.

The first is that the market is clearly in an uptrend, and the uptrend will continue for months.

The second assumption is that the market is really overbought these days, and I believe there is going to be a pullback of the SPX which will bring it below 1319 (today's) by the end of February.  This is the reason why part of my plan is to wait for the market to be cheaper before buying it.

By pullback I mean a drop of RSI(5) on the SPX below 40, or a drop that takes the SPX below 1305. The next level of support below 1305 is 1275.  If it were to drop below 1300 fast, it may find support at 1275.

I will look at weekly and daily chart and exercise some judgement when the time comes.

Rollover IRA

• At the next pullback of the S&P 500
• Go from current  40% VFINX, 49% VWESX, 11% cash
• To target asset allocation: 45% VFINX, 45% VFTSX, 10% VWESX

# Individual account

• At the next pullback of the S&P 500 (or the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index)
• Go from current allocation 74% VWEHX, 12% VWESX, 14% VWLTX
• To target allocation: 45% VFINX, 40% NAESX, 15% VWLTX
• Since the next pullback may extend over several days, the transition should be done in stages, e.g. adding to the new funds over three days, one third at a time.
• Add to VFINX at $SPX pullbacks, add to NAESX at $RUT pullbacks.

The exit strategy of last resort is described here.